Random Effect Models to Predict Operating Speed on Horizontal Curves for Intercity Buses Based on Naturalistic Driving Data

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 PhD Candidate, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Shomal University, Mazandaran, Iran

2 Faculty member, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Shomal University, Mazandaran, Iran

3 Faculty Member, Faculty of Electricity and Computer, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran

4 Faculty Member, Department of Basic Science, Islamic Azad University, Mazandaran, Iran

Abstract

The most common cause of death and injury worldwide is traffic accidents. Several studies have shown that these accidents occur primarily on rural roads, especially those with horizontal curves. Studies have indicated that inconsistency in geometric design is one of the main reasons for this problem. Road geometric consistency refers to the alignment of the road geometry with the expectations of the driver. In evaluating road design consistency, operating speed is the most common criterion, which can be estimated by using operating speed models. Buses account for the majority of passenger movement, so it is important to study their operating speed. In this work, the random effect model is used for 150 buses passing through 690 horizontal curves of the Tehran-Qaem­­shahr highway to estimate the performance speed in horizontal curves. Among all the highways connecting the northern area of the country to the capital, that expressway was chosen for the study because of many reasons such as the minimum changes in the geometry, high volume of daily bus traffic, various topographic conditions, and the availability of data needed for the study. Besides, the variables of driving time, the geometric design of the curve, the driver's data, and the characteristics of the bus are examined in this study. Finally, the developed model revealed that the average radius of the curve, the volume of traffic, the reverse curves, the percentage of heavy vehicles, the location of fixed speed cameras, the posted speed limit, and the darkness were all significant factors.

Keywords

References

Gargoum, S. A. and El-Basyouny, K. (2016) "Exploring the association between speed and safety: A path analysis approach", Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 93, pp.32-40.
 
Mirbaha, B., Saffarzadeh, M. and Noruzoliaee, M. H. (2013) "A model for predicting schoolchildren accidents in the vicinity of rural roads based on geometric design and traffic conditions", International Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp.25-33.
 
Fitzsimmons, E. J., Souleyrette, R. R., and Nambisan, S. S. (2013b). "Measuring horizontal curve vehicle trajectories and speed profiles: Pneumatic road tube and video methods." J. Transp. Eng., 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000501, 255–265.
 
Campbell, J. L., Richard, C. M., and Graham, J. (2008). Human factors guidelines for road systems, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC.
 
Jacob, A., and Anjaneyulu, M. V. L. R. (2013). "Operating speed of different classes of vehicles at horizontal curves on two-lane rural highways." J. Transp. Eng., 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000503, 287–294.
 
Aashto, A. (2001). Policy on geometric design ofhighways and streets. American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, DC, 1(990), 158.
 
Sil, G., Maji, A., Nama, S., & Maurya, A. K. (2019). Operating speed prediction model as a tool for consistency based geometric design of four-lane divided highways. Transport, 34(4), 425-436.
 
Nama, S., Maurya, A. K., Maji, A., Edara, P., and Sahu, P. K. (2016).“Vehicle speed characteristics and alignment design consistency for mountainous roads." Transp. Dev. Econ., 2(2), 1–11.
 
Misaghi, P.; Hassan, Y. 2005. Modeling operating speed and speed differential on two-lane rural roads, Journal of Transportation Engineering 131(6): 408–418.
 
Fitzpatrick, K., et al. (2000a). Alternative design consistency rating methods for two-lane rural highways, Federal Highway Administration, Washington, DC.
 
Nie, B., & Hassan, Y. (2007). Modeling driver speed behavior on horizontal curves of different road classifications (No. 07-0782).
 
Lamm, R., Choueiri, E. M., Hayward, J. C., & Paluri, A. (1988). POSSIBLE DESIGN PROCEDURE TO PROMOTE DESIGN CONSISTENCY IN HIGHWAY GEOMETRIC DESIGN ON TWO-LANE RURAL ROADS. Transportation Research Record, (1195).
 
Passetti, K. A., & Fambro, D. B. (1999). Operating speeds on curves with and without spiral transitions. Transportation research record, 1658(1), 9-16.
 
K. S. Abbas, M. A. Adnan, and I. R. Endut, "Exploration of 85 th Percentile Operating Speed Model on Horizontal Curve: A Case Study for Two-Lane Rural Highways," Procedia-Social and behavioral sciences, vol. 16, pp. 352-363, 2011.
 
Bella, F., Calvi, A., & D'Amico, F. (2014). Analysis of driver speeds under night driving conditions using a driving simulator. Journal of safety research, 49, 45-e1.
 
Gong, H., & Stamatiadis, N. (2008). Operating speed prediction models for horizontal curves on rural four-lane highways. Transportation Research Record, 2075(1), 1-7.
 
Wang, L., He, Y., & Wang, S. (2010). Research on Relationship between Operating Speed and Posted Speed Limit for Mountainous Freeway. In ICCTP 2010: Integrated Transportation Systems: Green, Intelligent, Reliable (pp. 816-823).
 
Semeida, A. M. (2013). Impact of highway geometry and posted speed on operating speed at multi-lane highways in Egypt. Journal of Advanced Research, 4(6), 515-523.
 
Boroujerdian, A. M., Seyedabrishami, E., & Akbarpour, H. (2016). Analysis of geometric design impacts on vehicle operating speed on two-lane rural roads. Procedia engineering, 161, 1144-1151.
 
Maji, A., Sil, G., & Tyagi, A. (2018). 85th and 98th percentile speed prediction models of car, light, and heavy commercial vehicles for four-lane divided rural highways. Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems, 144(5), 04018009.Bamdad 2019.
 
Bamdad Mehrabani, B., & Mirbaha, B. (2019). Modeling the operating speed in tangents and curves of four-lane highways based on geometric and roadside factors. International Journal of Transportation Engineering, 6(4), 355-366.
 
Gao, C., Xu, J., Jia, X., Dong, Y., & Ru, H. (2020). Influence of large vehicles on the speed of expressway traffic flow. Advances in Civil Engineering, 2020.
 
JHS, M. (2021). Operating Speed Prediction Model for Combined Curve on Two-Lane Two Way Non-Urban Roads.
 
Malaghan, V., Pawar, D. S., & Dia, H. (2022). Speed prediction models for heavy passenger vehicles on rural highways based on an instrumented vehicle study. Transportation letters, 14(1), 39-48.
 
Van Schagen, I., Welsh, R., Backer-Grøndahl, A., Hoedemaeker, M., Lotan, T., Morris, A., Sagberg, F., & Winkelbauer, M. (2011). Towards a large-scale European Naturalistic Driving study: main findings of PROLOGUE. PROLOGUE Deliverable D4.2. SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research, Leidschendam, The Netherlands.
 
Cruzado, I. (2009). Factors affecting driver speed choice along two-lane rural highway transition zones. The Pennsylvania State University.
 
Bassani, M., Cirillo, C., Molinari, S., & Tremblay, J. M. (2016). Random effect models to predict operating speed distribution on rural two-lane highways. Journal of transportation engineering, 142(6), 04016019.
 
Schwarz, G. (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model. The annals of statistics, 461-464.
 
Ando, T. (2007). Bayesian predictive information criterion for the evaluation of hierarchical Bayesian and empirical Bayes models. Biometrika, 94(2), 443-458.
 
Nasiri, H. A., Mohammadi, R. A., Nazari, H. (2012). "Geometric design consistency in two-lane rural road (case study in mazandran two-lane rural road)." The 12th international conference on traffic and transportation engineering, Iran.
 
Donnell, E. T., Ni, Y., Adolini, M., and Elefteriadou, L. (2001). "Speed prediction models for trucks on two-lane rural highways." Transportation Research Record 1751, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington, DC, 44–55.
 
Gressai, M., Varga, B., Tettamanti, T., & Varga, I. (2021). Investigating the impacts of urban speed limit reduction through microscopic traffic simulation. Communications in transportation research, 1, 100018.
 
Rogerson, P. A., Newstead, S. V., & Cameron, M. H. (1994). Evaluation of the Speed Camera Program in Victoria 1990-1991, Phase 3: Localised Effects On Casualty Crashes and Crash Severity. Phase 4: General Effects On Speed (No. 54).
 
Sabhanayagam, A. (2018). Impact of S-Curve on Speed in a Modern Roundabout.
 
Ishak, S., Osman, O. A., Ashly, G., Theriot, M., Ye, M., & Bakhit, P. (2016). Exploring Naturalistic Driving Study (NDS) Data and Roadway Information Database (RID) for Emerging Applications in Traffic Safety.
International Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 11, Issue 2 - Serial Number 42
October 2023
Pages 1419-1441

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics